1.0Probably Overthinking Ithttps://www.allendowney.com/blogAllenDowneyhttps://www.allendowney.com/blog/author/allendowney_6dbrc4/rich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="4hLLregCUY"><a href="https://www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/02/08/dont-bet-on-the-super-bowl/">Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/02/08/dont-bet-on-the-super-bowl/embed/#?secret=4hLLregCUY" width="600" height="338" title="“Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl” — Probably Overthinking It" data-secret="4hLLregCUY" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ /*! This file is auto-generated */ !function(d,l){"use strict";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&"undefined"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!/[^a-zA-Z0-9]/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),c=new RegExp("^https?:$","i"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display="none";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute("style"),"height"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):"link"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute("src")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener("message",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll("iframe.wp-embedded-content"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute("data-secret"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+="#?secret="+t,e.setAttribute("data-secret",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:"ready",secret:t},"*")},!1)))}(window,document); //# sourceURL=https://www.allendowney.com/blog/wp-includes/js/wp-embed.min.js /* ]]> */ </script> If you have studied probability, you might be familiar with fractional odds, which represent the ratio of the probability something happens to the probability it doesn’t. For example, if the Seahawks have a 75% chance of winning the Super Bowl, they have a 25% chance of losing, so the ratio is 75 to 25, sometimes written 3:1 and pronounced “three to one”. But if you search for “the odds that the Seahawks win”, you will probably get moneyline odds, also... Read More Read Morehttps://www.allendowney.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/48c1402d18913b4e4a43f62a11e1f6206cac36ff426a02adefd811caa7714e50.png442255