{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Probably Overthinking It","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog","author_name":"AllenDowney","author_url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/author\/allendowney_6dbrc4\/","title":"Lions and tigers and bears - Probably Overthinking It","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"QPQlrmMhKX\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/03\/lions-and-tigers-and-bears\/\">Lions and tigers and bears<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/03\/lions-and-tigers-and-bears\/embed\/#?secret=QPQlrmMhKX\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;Lions and tigers and bears&#8221; &#8212; Probably Overthinking It\" data-secret=\"QPQlrmMhKX\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe><script>\n\/*! This file is auto-generated *\/\n!function(d,l){\"use strict\";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&\"undefined\"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),c=new RegExp(\"^https?:$\",\"i\"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display=\"none\";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):\"link\"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute(\"src\")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener(\"message\",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:\"ready\",secret:t},\"*\")},!1)))}(window,document);\n\/\/# sourceURL=https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-embed.min.js\n<\/script>\n","description":"Here&#8217;s another Bayes puzzle: Suppose we visit a wild animal preserve where we know that the only animals are lions and tigers and bears, but we don&#8217;t know how many of each there are. During the tour, we see 3 lions, 2 tigers,\u00a0and one bear. Assuming that every animal had an equal chance to appear in our sample, estimate the prevalence of each species. What is the probability that the next animal we see is a bear? Solutions View the... Read More Read More","thumbnail_url":"http:\/\/mfsaweb.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/WizardOfOz.jpg"}