{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Probably Overthinking It","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog","author_name":"AllenDowney","author_url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/author\/allendowney_6dbrc4\/","title":"Bayesian Dice - Probably Overthinking It","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"e9wyuzLBiV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/09\/bayesian-dice\/\">Bayesian Dice<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/08\/09\/bayesian-dice\/embed\/#?secret=e9wyuzLBiV\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;Bayesian Dice&#8221; &#8212; Probably Overthinking It\" data-secret=\"e9wyuzLBiV\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\/* <![CDATA[ *\/\n\/*! This file is auto-generated *\/\n!function(d,l){\"use strict\";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&\"undefined\"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),c=new RegExp(\"^https?:$\",\"i\"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display=\"none\";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):\"link\"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute(\"src\")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener(\"message\",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:\"ready\",secret:t},\"*\")},!1)))}(window,document);\n\/\/# sourceURL=https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-embed.min.js\n\/* ]]> *\/\n<\/script>\n","description":"This article is available in a Jupyter notebook: click here to run it on Colab. I\u2019ve been enjoying Aubrey Clayton\u2019s new book Bernoulli\u2019s Fallacy. The first chapter, which is about the historical development of competing definitions of probability, is worth the price of admission alone. One of the examples in Chapter 1 is a simplified version of a problem posed by Thomas Bayes. The original version, which I wrote about here, involves a billiards (pool) table; Clayton\u2019s version uses dice:... Read More Read More","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/ThinkBayes2\/_images\/bayes_dice_30_0.png"}