{"id":1009,"date":"2023-08-27T21:28:14","date_gmt":"2023-08-27T21:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1009"},"modified":"2023-08-27T21:28:14","modified_gmt":"2023-08-27T21:28:14","slug":"taming-black-swans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/08\/27\/taming-black-swans\/","title":{"rendered":"Taming Black Swans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

At SciPy 2023 I presented a talk called “Taming Black Swans: Long-tailed distributions in the natural and engineered world<\/a>“. Here’s the abstract:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Long-tailed distributions are common in natural and engineered systems; as a result, we encounter extreme values more often than we would expect from a short-tailed distribution. If we are not prepared for these “black swans”, they can be disastrous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we have statistical tools for identifying long-tailed distributions, estimating their parameters, and making better predictions about rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this talk, I present evidence of long-tailed distributions in a variety of datasets — including earthquakes, asteroids, and stock market crashes — discuss statistical methods for dealing with them, and show implementations using scientific Python libraries.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The video from the talk is on YouTube now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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