{"id":1027,"date":"2023-09-19T14:19:34","date_gmt":"2023-09-19T14:19:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1027"},"modified":"2023-09-19T14:19:34","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T14:19:34","slug":"the-overton-paradox-in-three-graphs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/09\/19\/the-overton-paradox-in-three-graphs\/","title":{"rendered":"The Overton Paradox in Three Graphs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Older people are more likely to say they are conservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"912\" height=\"605\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1028\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton1.png 912w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton1-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton1-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton1-407x270.png 407w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 912px) 100vw, 912px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And older people believe more conservative things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"885\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1029\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton4.png 885w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton4-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton4-768x593.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton4-350x270.png 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 885px) 100vw, 885px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But if you group people by decade of birth, most groups get more liberal as they get older.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"872\" height=\"649\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1030\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png 872w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5-768x572.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5-363x270.png 363w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 872px) 100vw, 872px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So if people get more liberal, on average, why are they more likely to <em>say<\/em> they are conservative?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now there are three ways to find out!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Today <a href=\"https:\/\/brilliant.org\/lesson\/the-overton-paradox\/\">Brilliant launched an interactive article explaining the Overton Paraodox<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Also today, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.superdatascience.com\/podcast\/make-better-decisions-with-data-with-dr-allen-downey\">SuperDataScience Podcast published a conversation about <em>Probably Overthinking It<\/em><\/a>, including a discussion of the Overton Paradox. You can also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XahCbxan434\">watch the video on YouTube<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And I gave <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/11\/09\/chasing-the-overton-window\/\">a talk about it at PyData NYC 2022, which you can watch here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Since some people have asked, I should say that &#8220;Overton Paradox&#8221; is the name I am giving this phenomenon. It&#8217;s named after the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Overton_window\">Overton window<\/a>, for reasons that will be clear if you read my explanation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Older people are more likely to say they are conservative. And older people believe more conservative things. But if you group people by decade of birth, most groups get more liberal as they get older. So if people get more liberal, on average, why are they more likely to say they are conservative? Now there are three ways to find out! Since some people have asked, I should say that &#8220;Overton Paradox&#8221; is the name I am giving this phenomenon&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/09\/19\/the-overton-paradox-in-three-graphs\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Overton Paradox in Three Graphs - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/09\/19\/the-overton-paradox-in-three-graphs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Overton Paradox in Three Graphs - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Older people are more likely to say they are conservative. And older people believe more conservative things. But if you group people by decade of birth, most groups get more liberal as they get older. So if people get more liberal, on average, why are they more likely to say they are conservative? Now there are three ways to find out! Since some people have asked, I should say that &#8220;Overton Paradox&#8221; is the name I am giving this phenomenon.... 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And older people hold more conservative views. But people don't become more conservative as they get older -- on average they get\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/07\/27\/left-right-part-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":1027,"position":1},"title":"Left, right, part 2","author":"AllenDowney","date":"July 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In the previous article, I looked at data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to see how political alignment in the U.S. has changed, on the axis from conservative to liberal, over the last 50 years. The GSS asks respondents where they place themselves on a 7-point scale from \"extremely\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"data science\"","block_context":{"text":"data science","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/data-science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/image-8.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/image-8.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/image-8.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":596,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/03\/simpsons-paradox-and-age-effects\/","url_meta":{"origin":1027,"position":2},"title":"Simpson&#8217;s Paradox and Age Effects","author":"AllenDowney","date":"May 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"As people get older, do they become more racist, sexist, and homophobic? To find out, you could use data from the General Social Survey (GSS), which asks questions like: Do you think there should be laws against marriages between Blacks\/African-Americans and whites?Should a man who admits[mfn]If you find the wording\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"general social survey\"","block_context":{"text":"general social survey","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/general-social-survey\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1173,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/04\/the-center-moves-faster-than-you\/","url_meta":{"origin":1027,"position":3},"title":"The Center Moves Faster Than You","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In May 2022, Elon Musk tweeted this cartoon: The creator of the cartoon, Colin Wright, explained it like this: At the outset, I stand happily beside 'my fellow liberal,' who is slightly to my left. In 2012 he sprints to the left, dragging out the left end of the political\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":753,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/08\/22\/off-to-technical-review\/","url_meta":{"origin":1027,"position":4},"title":"Off to Technical Review","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I have news. I finished the last two chapters of Probably Overthinking It last week and sent a complete draft of the book off for technical review. Yay! In the last chapter, I used some methodology I thought was worth reporting, but too technical for the book, which is intended\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1465,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/12\/20\/political-alignment-and-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":1027,"position":5},"title":"Political Alignment and Outlook","author":"AllenDowney","date":"December 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the fourth in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. It's from Chapter 15, which is part of the political alignment case study. You can read the complete chapter here, or run the Jupyter notebook on Colab. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/c66dd4e209513c6b52923f0279d558dc7cf98d7002a9608170da7c0372146851.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1027"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1032,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027\/revisions\/1032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}