{"id":1210,"date":"2024-02-01T13:22:59","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T13:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1210"},"modified":"2024-02-01T13:22:59","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T13:22:59","slug":"extremes-outliers-and-goats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/01\/extremes-outliers-and-goats\/","title":{"rendered":"Extremes, outliers, and GOATS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The video from my PyData Global 2023 talk, <a href=\"https:\/\/global2023.pydata.org\/cfp\/talk\/JGNZYV\/\">Extremes, outliers, and GOATS<\/a>, is available now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MhA5XWIWWys?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/presentation\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRzs929Mi-RpkhidInALQ8t7mVtWyHaukFAD0oN4ymSTIHdXPquKbuF5QXENedZesRXvx9NxPiaWz7X\/pub#slide=id.p\">The slides are here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two Jupyter notebooks that contain the analysis I presented:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/ProbablyOverthinkingIt\/blob\/book\/notebooks\/lognormal.ipynb&amp;sa=D&amp;source=editors&amp;ust=1706752193517633&amp;usg=AOvVaw02kqeckdTi2WKTTkGYbwFT\">Chapter 4 of <em>Probably Overthinking It<\/em><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/ProbablyOverthinkingIt\/blob\/book\/notebooks\/log_vs_normal.ipynb&amp;sa=D&amp;source=editors&amp;ust=1706752193518072&amp;usg=AOvVaw0u7TztiW4fpUi347y5O5if\">An exploration of Gaussian and lognormal models for anthropomorphic measurements<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s the abstract:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>The fastest runners are much faster than we expect from a Gaussian distribution, and the best chess players are much better. In almost every field of human endeavor, there are outliers who stand out even among the most talented people in the world. Where do they come from? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this talk, I present as possible explanations two data-generating processes that yield lognormal distributions, and show that these models describe many real-world scenarios in natural and social sciences, engineering, and business. And I suggest methods &#8212; using SciPy tools &#8212; for identifying these distributions, estimating their parameters, and generating predictions. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>This talk is based on Chapter 4 of <em><a href=\"https:\/\/greenteapress.com\/wp\/probably-overthinking-it\/\">Probably Overthinking It<\/a><\/em>. If you liked the talk, you&#8217;ll love the book \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to the organizers of PyData Global and NumFOCUS!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The video from my PyData Global 2023 talk, Extremes, outliers, and GOATS, is available now: The slides are here. There are two Jupyter notebooks that contain the analysis I presented: Here&#8217;s the abstract: The fastest runners are much faster than we expect from a Gaussian distribution, and the best chess players are much better. In almost every field of human endeavor, there are outliers who stand out even among the most talented people in the world. Where do they come&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/01\/extremes-outliers-and-goats\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Extremes, outliers, and GOATS - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/01\/extremes-outliers-and-goats\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Extremes, outliers, and GOATS - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The video from my PyData Global 2023 talk, Extremes, outliers, and GOATS, is available now: The slides are here. There are two Jupyter notebooks that contain the analysis I presented: Here&#8217;s the abstract: The fastest runners are much faster than we expect from a Gaussian distribution, and the best chess players are much better. In almost every field of human endeavor, there are outliers who stand out even among the most talented people in the world. Where do they come... 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You can get a 30% discount if you order from the publisher and use the code UCPNEW. You can also order from Amazon or, if you want to support independent bookstores, from Bookshop.org. I celebrated launch day by giving a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1109,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/11\/21\/life-in-a-lognormal-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":1210,"position":1},"title":"Life in a Lognormal World","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"At PyData Global 2023 I will present a talk, \"Extremes, outliers, and GOATs: On life in a lognormal world\". It is scheduled for Wednesday 6 December at 11 am Eastern Time. [UPDATE: here is the video] https:\/\/youtu.be\/MhA5XWIWWys Here is the abstract: The fastest runners are much faster than we expect\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/log_vs_normal5-1.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1357,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/08\/23\/probably-the-book\/","url_meta":{"origin":1210,"position":2},"title":"Probably the Book","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I had the pleasure of presenting a keynote at posit::conf(2024). When the video is available, I will post it here [UPDATE here it is]. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YKMZIzYBgTk In the meantime, you can read the slides, if you don't mind spoilers. For people at the conference who don't know me, this\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":777,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/05\/are-we-really-polarized\/","url_meta":{"origin":1210,"position":3},"title":"Are we really polarized?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"September 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm working on a book called Probably Overthinking It that is about using evidence and reason to answer questions and guide decision making. If you would like to get an occasional update about the book, please join my mailing list. I'm a little tired of hearing about how polarized we\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/alignment4-scaled.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1646,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/11\/04\/its-levels\/","url_meta":{"origin":1210,"position":4},"title":"It&#8217;s Levels","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Reddit post asks \"Amateur athletes of Reddit: what's your 'There's levels to this shit' experience from your sport?\" Responses included: We have some good runners who can win local races ... And then you realise that if you put them in a 5000m race with Olympic-level athletes they'd\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"lognormal distribution\"","block_context":{"text":"lognormal distribution","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/lognormal-distribution\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/212090bf9c6718b7d51f02945d3cb353d999e9243739e5c24535e8f5f36f013e.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":996,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/08\/20\/how-correlated-are-you\/","url_meta":{"origin":1210,"position":5},"title":"How Correlated Are You?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 20, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This post is an offshoot from Chapter 1 of Probably Overthinking It, which is available for pre-order now! Suppose you measure the arm and leg lengths of 4082 people. You would expect those measurements to be correlated, and you would be right. In the ANSUR-II dataset, among male members of\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-7.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1210"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1210\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1212,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1210\/revisions\/1212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}