{"id":1221,"date":"2024-02-11T22:25:58","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T22:25:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1221"},"modified":"2024-02-11T22:25:58","modified_gmt":"2024-02-11T22:25:58","slug":"the-political-gender-gap-is-not-growing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/11\/the-political-gender-gap-is-not-growing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Political Gender Gap is Not Growing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/04\/political-alignment-affiliation-and-attitudes\/\">a previous article<\/a>, I used data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/gss.norc.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">General Social Survey<\/a> (GSS) to see if there is a growing gender gap among young people in political alignment, party affiliation, or political attitudes. So far, the answer is no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Young women are more likely than men to say they are liberal by 5-10 percentage points. But there is little or no evidence that the gap is growing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Young women are more likely to say they are Democrats. In the 1990s, the gap was almost 20 percentage points. Now it is only 5-10 percentage points. So there&#8217;s no evidence this gap is growing \u2014 if anything, it is shrinking.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To 15 questions related to policies and attitudes, young men give slightly more conservative responses than women, on average, but the gap is small and consistent over time \u2014 there is no evidence it is growing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ryanburge\/status\/1751615375408521623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ryan Burge has done a similar analysis<\/a> with data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/cces.gov.harvard.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Cooperative Election Study<\/a> (CSE). Looking at stated political alignment, he finds that young women are more likely to say they are liberal by 5-10 percentage points. But there is no evidence that the gap is growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That leaves one other long-running survey to consider, the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionstudies.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">American National Election Studies<\/a> (ANES). I have been meaning to explore this dataset for a long time, so this project is a perfect excuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/ProbablyOverthinkingIt\/blob\/book\/examples\/anes_gap.ipynb\">This Jupyter notebook shows my analysis of alignment and party affiliation<\/a>. I&#8217;ll get to beliefs and attitudes next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alignment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This figure shows the percent who say they are liberal minus the percent who say they are conservative, for men and women ages 18-29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1-360x270.png 360w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap3-1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It looks like the gender gap in political alignment appeared in the 1980s, but it has been nearly constant since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Affiliation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This figure shows the percent who say they are Democrats minus the percent who say they are Republicans, for men and women ages 18-29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4-360x270.png 360w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/anes_gap4.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The gender gap in party affiliation has been mostly constant since the 1970s. It might have been a little wider in the 1990s, and might be shrinking now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So what&#8217;s up with Gallup?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results from GSS, CES, and ANES are consistent: there is no evidence of a growing gender gap in alignment, affiliation, or attitudes. So why does the Gallup data tell a different story?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s the figure from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998\">Financial Times article<\/a> again, zooming in on just the US data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"374\" height=\"359\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ft_ideology_gap_us.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ft_ideology_gap_us.png 374w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ft_ideology_gap_us-300x288.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ft_ideology_gap_us-281x270.png 281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, I think this figure is misleading. As <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jburnmurdoch\/status\/1751569229516550403\">explained in this tweet<\/a>, the data here have been adjusted by subtracting off the trend in the general population. As a result, the figure gives the impression that young men now are more likely to identify as conservative than in the past, and that&#8217;s not true. They are more likely to identify as liberal, but this trend is moving slightly slower than in the general population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But misleading or not, this way of showing the data doesn&#8217;t change the headline result, which is that the gender gap in this dataset has grown substantially, from about 10 percentage points in 2010 to about 30 percentage points now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jburnmurdoch\/status\/1751564391395332601\">Twitter<\/a>, the author of the FT article points out that one difference is that the sample size is bigger for the Gallup data than the datasets I looked at &#8212; and that&#8217;s true. Sample size explains why the variability from year to year is smaller in the Gallup data, but it does not explain why we see a big trend in the Gallup data that does not exist at in the other datasets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a next step, I would ideally like to access the Gallup data so I can replicate the analysis in the FT article and explore reasons for the discrepancy. If anyone with access to the Gallup data can and will share it with me, let me know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barring that, we are left with two criteria to consider: plausibility and preponderance of evidence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Plausibility<\/strong>: The size of the changes in the Gallup data are at least surprising if not implausible. A change of 20 percentage points in 10 years is unlikely, especially in an analysis like this where we follow an age group over time &#8212; so the composition of the group changes slowly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Preponderance of evidence<\/strong>: At this point see a trend in one analysis of one dataset, and no sign of that result in several analyses of three other similar datasets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until we see better evidence to support the surprising claim, it seems most likely that the gender gap among young people is not growing, and is currently no larger than it has been in the past.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a previous article, I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to see if there is a growing gender gap among young people in political alignment, party affiliation, or political attitudes. So far, the answer is no. Ryan Burge has done a similar analysis with data from the Cooperative Election Study (CSE). Looking at stated political alignment, he finds that young women are more likely to say they are liberal by 5-10 percentage points. But there is no&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/11\/the-political-gender-gap-is-not-growing\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Political Gender Gap is Not Growing - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/11\/the-political-gender-gap-is-not-growing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Political Gender Gap is Not Growing - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In a previous article, I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to see if there is a growing gender gap among young people in political alignment, party affiliation, or political attitudes. 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So far, the answer is no. Ryan Burge has done a similar analysis with data from the Cooperative Election Study (CSE). Looking at stated political alignment, he finds that young women are more likely to say they are liberal by 5-10 percentage points. But there is no... 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Alignment A recent article in the Financial Times suggests that among young people there is a growing gender gap in political alignment on a spectrum from liberal to conservative. In last week's post, I tried to replicate this result using data\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1233,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/18\/the-gender-gap-in-political-beliefs-is-small\/","url_meta":{"origin":1221,"position":1},"title":"The Gender Gap in Political Beliefs Is Small","author":"AllenDowney","date":"February 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In previous articles (here, here, and here) I've looked at evidence of a gender gap in political alignment (liberal or conservative), party affiliation (Democrat or Republican), and policy preferences. Using data from the GSS, I found that women are more likely to say they are liberal, and more likely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/belief_gap3-1.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1200,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/28\/is-the-ideology-gap-growing\/","url_meta":{"origin":1221,"position":2},"title":"Is the Ideology Gap Growing?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 28, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This tweet from John Burn-Murdoch links to an article in the Financial Times (FT), \u201cA new global gender divide is emerging\u201d, which includes this figure: The article claims: In the US, Gallup data shows that after decades where the sexes were each spread roughly equally across liberal and conservative world\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ideology_gap1.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1320,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/06\/29\/have-the-nones-leveled-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":1221,"position":3},"title":"Have the Nones Leveled Off?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"June 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last month Ryan Burge published \"The Nones Have Hit a Ceiling\", using data from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study to show that the increase in the number of Americans with no religious affiliation has hit a plateau. 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The fraction who say they have no religious affiliation has more than tripled, from about 10% to 34%. And the fraction who say they have attended a religious service in the last year fell from more than 85%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"atheism\"","block_context":{"text":"atheism","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/atheism\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/heri.2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1514,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/03\/19\/young-adults-are-having-the-children-they-want-but-they-want-fewer\/","url_meta":{"origin":1221,"position":5},"title":"Young Adults Want Fewer Children","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of their child-bearing years. 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