{"id":133,"date":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","date_gmt":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=133"},"modified":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","modified_gmt":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","slug":"race-religion-and-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Race, religion, and politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In their November 3, 2018 issue, <em>The Economist<\/em> published the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2018\/11\/03\/how-to-forecast-an-americans-vote\">following figure<\/a> showing their analysis of data from YouGov.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-134\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"756\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-768x540.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-384x270.png 384w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist.png 962w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the second edition of <em>Think Bayes<\/em>, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey (GSS).<\/p>\n<div class=\"oembed-gist\"><script src=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/AllenDowney\/476b9c77a6581d689528c99d688685e9.js\"><\/script><noscript>View the code on <a href=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/AllenDowney\/476b9c77a6581d689528c99d688685e9\">Gist<\/a>.<\/noscript><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In their November 3, 2018 issue, The Economist published the following figure showing their analysis of data from YouGov. For the second edition of Think Bayes, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey (GSS). View the code on Gist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Race, religion, and politics - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Race, religion, and politics - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In their November 3, 2018 issue, The Economist published the following figure showing their analysis of data from YouGov. For the second edition of Think Bayes, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey (GSS). View the code on Gist.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-12-28T17:47:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"AllenDowney\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207\"},\"headline\":\"Race, religion, and politics\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-12-28T17:47:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\"},\"wordCount\":66,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\",\"name\":\"Race, religion, and politics - 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In last week's post, I tried to replicate this result using data\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ideology_gap5.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1059,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/10\/09\/another-step-toward-a-two-hour-marathon\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":2},"title":"Another step toward a two-hour marathon","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is an update to an analysis I run each time the marathon world record is broken. If you like this sort of thing, you will like my forthcoming book, Probably Overthinking It, which is available for preorder now. On October 8, 2023, Kelvin Kiptum ran the Chicago Marathon in\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":96,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/06\/august-causes-adhd\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":3},"title":"August causes ADHD","author":"AllenDowney","date":"December 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent paper in the New England Journal of Medicine, Attention Deficit\u2013Hyperactivity Disorder and Month of School Enrollment, compares diagnosis rates for ADHD for children born in August and children born in September.\u00a0 \u00a0In states that have a September 1 cutoff for children to start school, students born in September\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Screenshot-at-2019-01-31-16-39-31.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Screenshot-at-2019-01-31-16-39-31.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Screenshot-at-2019-01-31-16-39-31.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Screenshot-at-2019-01-31-16-39-31.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":498,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/10\/21\/millennials-are-not-getting-married\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":4},"title":"Millennials are not getting married","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"In 2015 I wrote a paper called \"Will Millennials Ever Get Married?\" where I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage for women in the U.S, broken down by decade of birth. \u00a0 I found that women born in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"marriage\"","block_context":{"text":"marriage","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/marriage\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1618,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/10\/16\/simpsons-what\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":5},"title":"Simpson&#8217;s What?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I like Simpson\u2019s paradox so much I wrote three chapters about it in Probably Overthinking It. In fact, I like it so much I have a Google alert that notifies me when someone publishes a new example (or when the horse named Simpson\u2019s Paradox wins a race). So I was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"epidemiology\"","block_context":{"text":"epidemiology","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/epidemiology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":136,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133\/revisions\/136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}