{"id":133,"date":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","date_gmt":"2018-12-28T17:47:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=133"},"modified":"2026-10-11T00:09:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T00:09:39","slug":"race-religion-and-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Race, religion, and politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In their November 3, 2018 issue, <em>The Economist<\/em> published the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2018\/11\/03\/how-to-forecast-an-americans-vote\">following figure<\/a> showing their analysis of data from YouGov.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-134\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"756\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-768x540.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-384x270.png 384w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist.png 962w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the second edition of <em>Think Bayes<\/em>, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey (GSS).<\/p>\n<div class=\"oembed-gist\"><script src=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/AllenDowney\/476b9c77a6581d689528c99d688685e9.js\"><\/script><noscript>View the code on <a href=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/AllenDowney\/476b9c77a6581d689528c99d688685e9\">Gist<\/a>.<\/noscript><\/div>\n<p><em>This topic is part of my book in progress, <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.com\/ywcn\">You Would Choose Now<\/a>, which uses decades of survey data to track changing attitudes in the United States. The early access edition is available now.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In their November 3, 2018 issue, The Economist published the following figure showing their analysis of data from YouGov. For the second edition of Think Bayes, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey (GSS). View the code on Gist. This topic is part of my book in progress, You Would Choose Now, which uses decades of survey data to track changing attitudes in&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Race, religion, and politics - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Race, religion, and politics - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In their November 3, 2018 issue, The Economist published the following figure showing their analysis of data from YouGov. 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Read More Read More\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/28\/race-religion-and-politics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-12-28T17:47:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-11T00:09:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"962\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"676\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"AllenDowney\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207\"},\"headline\":\"Race, religion, and politics\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-12-28T17:47:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-11T00:09:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":100,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/economist-300x211.png\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.allendowney.com\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/28\\\/race-religion-and-politics\\\/\",\"name\":\"Race, religion, and politics - 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Today they released the most recent data, from surveys conducted\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":344,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/03\/political-alignment-and-beliefs-about-homosexuality\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":3},"title":"Political alignment and beliefs about homosexuality","author":"AllenDowney","date":"December 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In the United States, beliefs and attitudes about homosexuality have changed drastically over the last 50 years. In 1972, 74% of U.S. residents thought sexual relations between two adults of the same sex were \"always wrong\", according to results from the General Social Survey (GSS). In 2018, that fraction was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"general social survey\"","block_context":{"text":"general social survey","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/general-social-survey\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/image-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":586,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/30\/whats-new-in-think-bayes-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":4},"title":"What&#8217;s new in Think Bayes 2?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"April 30, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm happy to report that the second edition of Think Bayes is available for preorder now. What's new in the second edition? I wrote a new Chapter 1 that introduces conditional probability using the Linda the Banker problem and data from the General Social Survey.I added new chapters on survival\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"bayesian statistics\"","block_context":{"text":"bayesian statistics","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/bayesian-statistics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cover of Think Bayes second edition","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/think_bayes_2e_cover.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":519,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/24\/the-retreat-from-religion-continues\/","url_meta":{"origin":133,"position":5},"title":"The Retreat From Religion Continues","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A few years ago I wrote an article for the Scientific American blog where I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to describe changes in religious affiliation in the U.S. And in this longer article I described changes in religious belief as well, including belief in God, interpretation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"gss\"","block_context":{"text":"gss","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/gss\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1942,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133\/revisions\/1942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}