{"id":169,"date":"2019-02-06T16:04:12","date_gmt":"2019-02-06T16:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=169"},"modified":"2019-02-07T16:30:17","modified_gmt":"2019-02-07T16:30:17","slug":"the-marriage-strike-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/06\/the-marriage-strike-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"The marriage strike continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last month The National Survey of Family Growth<\/a> released new data from 5,554 respondents interviewed between 2015 and 2017. I’ve worked on several studies using data from the NSFG, so it’s time to do some updates!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015 I gave a talk at SciPy called “Will Millennials Ever Get Married<\/a>” and wrote a paper that appeared in the proceedings<\/a>. I used data from the NSFG through 2013 to generate this plot showing marriage rates for women in the U.S. grouped by decade of birth:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The vertical axis, S(t), is the estimated survival curve, which is the fraction of women who have never been married as a function of age. The gray lines show projections based on the assumption that each cohort going forward will “inherit” the hazard function of the previous cohort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are not familiar with survival functions and hazard functions, you might want to read the SciPy paper<\/a>, which explains the methodology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let’s see how things look with the new data. Here’s the updated plot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A few things to notice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Age at first marriage has been increasing for decades. Median age at first marriage has gone from 20 for women born in the 1940s to 27 for women born in the 1980s and looks likely to be higher for women born in the 1990s.<\/li>
  2. The fraction of women unmarried at age 44 has gone from 7% for women born in the 1940s to 18% for women born in the 1970s. And according to the projections I computed, this fraction will increase to 30% for women born in the 1980s and 42% for women born in the 1990s.<\/li>
  3. For women born the 1980s and 1990s, the survival curves have been surprisingly flat for the last five years; that is, very few women in these cohorts have been married during this time. This is the “marriage strike” I mentioned in the SciPy paper, and it seems to be ongoing.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Because the marriage strike is happening at the same time in two cohorts, it may be a period effect rather than a cohort effect<\/a>; that is, it might be due to external factors affecting both cohorts, rather than a generational change. For example, economic conditions might be discouraging marriage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If so, the marriage strike<\/g> might end when external conditions change. But at least for now, it looks like people will continue getting married later, and substantially more people will remain unmarried in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In my next post, I will show the results of this analysis for men.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Last month The National Survey of Family Growth released new data from 5,554 respondents interviewed between 2015 and 2017. I’ve worked on several studies using data from the NSFG, so it’s time to do some updates! In 2015 I gave a talk at SciPy called “Will Millennials Ever Get Married” and wrote a paper that appeared in the proceedings. I used data from the NSFG through 2013 to generate this plot showing marriage rates for women in the U.S. grouped…<\/p>\n

    Read More Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe marriage strike continues - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/06\/the-marriage-strike-continues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The marriage strike continues - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last month The National Survey of Family Growth released new data from 5,554 respondents interviewed between 2015 and 2017. 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Both.","author":"AllenDowney","date":"February 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I wrote about marriage patterns for women in the U.S. Now let's see what's happening with men. Again, I'm working with data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which surveyed 29,192 men in the U.S. between 2002 and 2017. 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My analysis uses data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Today they released the most recent data, from surveys conducted\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":498,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/10\/21\/millennials-are-not-getting-married\/","url_meta":{"origin":169,"position":2},"title":"Millennials are not getting married","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"In 2015 I wrote a paper called \"Will Millennials Ever Get Married?\" where I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage for women in the U.S, broken down by decade of birth. \u00a0 I found that women born in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"marriage\"","block_context":{"text":"marriage","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/marriage\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1514,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/03\/19\/young-adults-are-having-the-children-they-want-but-they-want-fewer\/","url_meta":{"origin":169,"position":3},"title":"Young Adults Want Fewer Children","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of their child-bearing years. Compared to previous generations at the same ages,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1541,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/04\/06\/announcing-think-stats-3e\/","url_meta":{"origin":169,"position":4},"title":"Announcing Think Stats 3e","author":"AllenDowney","date":"April 6, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The third edition of Think Stats is on its way to the printer! You can preorder now from Bookshop.org and Amazon (those are affiliate links), or if you can't wait to get a paper copy, you can read the free, online version here. Here's the new cover, still featuring a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1357,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/08\/23\/probably-the-book\/","url_meta":{"origin":169,"position":5},"title":"Probably the Book","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I had the pleasure of presenting a keynote at posit::conf(2024). When the video is available, I will post it here [UPDATE here it is]. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YKMZIzYBgTk In the meantime, you can read the slides, if you don't mind spoilers. For people at the conference who don't know me, this\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":177,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions\/177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}