{"id":1766,"date":"2026-04-03T14:48:45","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T14:48:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1766"},"modified":"2026-04-03T14:48:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T14:48:48","slug":"trust-and-well-being","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/04\/03\/trust-and-well-being\/","title":{"rendered":"Trust and Well-Being"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In a previous article, I claimed that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/19\/young-adults-are-not-very-happy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Young adults are not very happy<\/a>. Now the <a href=\"https:\/\/worldhappiness.report\/ed\/2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">World Happiness Report 2026<\/a> has confirmed that young people in North America and Western Europe are less happy than they were fifteen years ago, and less happy than previous generations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this article, we\u2019ll look at results from three related questions in the General Social Survey (GSS):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Trust:<\/strong> \u201cGenerally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can\u2019t be too careful in dealing with people?\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fair:<\/strong> \u201cDo you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try to be fair?\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Helpful:<\/strong> \u201cWould you say that most of the time people try to be helpful, or that they are mostly just looking out for themselves?\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As we\u2019ll see, young adults in the United States have a more negative outlook than previous generations: they are less likely to say that people can be trusted, that they are fair, or that they are helpful. And we\u2019ll consider connections between this bleak outlook and unhappiness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"trust\">Trust<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the same model from the previous articles, I estimated the percentage who say people can be trusted, following each birth year over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-trajectories-trust\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1330\" height=\"778\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8.png\" alt=\"Cohort trajectories, percent saying most people can be trusted\" class=\"wp-image-1769\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8.png 1330w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_tr-5809c4884f70b4b9b75cfe97047f2fe8-462x270.png 462w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1330px) 100vw, 1330px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Cohort trajectories, percent saying most people can be trusted<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With these trajectories, we can decompose the cohort and period effects. The following figure shows the cohort effect, standardized by holding the period effect constant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-profile-trust\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1133\" height=\"790\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c.png\" alt=\"Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying most people can be trusted\" class=\"wp-image-1772\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c.png 1133w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c-1024x714.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-83920254db4863278c92f3cee792510c-387x270.png 387w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1133px) 100vw, 1133px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying most people can be trusted<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The level of trust increased between the cohorts born in the 1900s through the 1940s, and then started a steep decline. This is a large cohort effect, dropping about 30 percentage points over 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following figure shows the period effect, standardized by holding the cohort mix constant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"time-trend-trust\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1133\" height=\"790\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f.png\" alt=\"Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying most people can be trusted\" class=\"wp-image-1773\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f.png 1133w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f-1024x714.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_tr-2f029b683d9ad86a39a536e4f95c8c0f-387x270.png 387w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1133px) 100vw, 1133px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying most people can be trusted<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, there is almost no period effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-conjecture-part\">The conjecture part<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>About my previous article, one of my former colleagues said he appreciated my attempt to offer explanations, but reminded me that with this kind of data alone, it is hard to say what causes what with any confidence. That\u2019s true, and it\u2019s a good reminder &#8212; but we can get some clues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>When we see a strong cohort effect and almost no period effect, that\u2019s evidence that we\u2019re seeing patterns set in childhood.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When we see period effects, we should look for events that affected all cohorts at the same time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So let\u2019s think about what was happening in the formative years of these cohorts, starting with the 1940 cohort, which was the high point in trust, before the decline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cohort 1940 (childhood: 1940\u20131960): dense local communities, strong civic and religious institutions, frequent face-to-face interaction, and shared media environment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort 1950 (1950\u20131970): suburbanization expands, some weakening of community density, television becomes widespread but still shared.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort 1960 (1960\u20131980): civil rights conflict, Vietnam War, Watergate scandal, rising crime.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort 1970 (1970\u20131990): reduced civic participation, rising inequality, more cautious parenting, less unstructured social interaction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort 1980 (1980\u20132000): increasing inequality, more segregation by class and education, early internet exposure, continued decline in shared institutions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point a multi-generational effect comes into play &#8212; the parents of Cohort 1980, born in the 1950s and 1960s, were less trusting than previous generations of parents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cohort 1990 (1990\u20132010): widespread internet use, early social media, more structured childhood, increasing awareness of global risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort 2000 (2000\u20132020): smartphones and social media throughout formative years, algorithmic content, reduced in-person interaction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If trust is largely set early in life, then differences between cohorts reflect the environments they experienced during their first two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to this question about trust, the GSS includes related questions about fairness and mutual assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fair\">Fair<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try to be fair? The following figure shows the percentage who thought people would be fair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-trajectories-fair\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1330\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682.png\" alt=\"Cohort trajectories, percent saying people would try to be fair\" class=\"wp-image-1771\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682.png 1330w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682-1024x603.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_fa-941da70cb9e1fdb60ecd622a8e79f682-459x270.png 459w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1330px) 100vw, 1330px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Cohort trajectories, percent saying people would try to be fair<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And here\u2019s the cohort effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-profile-fair\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1266\" height=\"764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731.png\" alt=\"Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying people would try to be fair\" class=\"wp-image-1774\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731.png 1266w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731-1024x618.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-e471d5b01144d15bbf17ba11755d7731-447x270.png 447w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1266px) 100vw, 1266px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying people would try to be fair<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the period effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"time-trend-fair\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1266\" height=\"764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664.png\" alt=\"Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying people would try to be fair\" class=\"wp-image-1775\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664.png 1266w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664-1024x618.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_fa-c4e6dd0e53f81bd5148e3461a47a3664-447x270.png 447w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1266px) 100vw, 1266px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying people would try to be fair<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The cohort pattern is similar to what we saw in trust: small changes between the 1900s and 1940s cohorts, and then a steep decline &#8212; almost 40 percentage points over 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The period effect is relatively small, varying by only 10 percentage points from lowest to highest point, but it was generally positive until about 2015 (the onset of the Trump Era?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"helpful\">Helpful<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Would you say that most of the time people try to be helpful, or that they are mostly just looking out for themselves?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is a period\u2013cohort fingerprint of the responses, showing the percentage who thought people try to be helpful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-trajectories-helpful\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1330\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8.png\" alt=\"Cohort trajectories, percent saying people try to be helpful\" class=\"wp-image-1770\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8.png 1330w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8-1024x603.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_trajectory_he-73b3c2f2b5af024ffd374acb439b3ec8-459x270.png 459w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1330px) 100vw, 1330px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Cohort trajectories, percent saying people try to be helpful<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s the cohort effect:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"cohort-profile-helpful\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1337\" height=\"764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d.png\" alt=\"Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying people try to be helpful\" class=\"wp-image-1777\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d.png 1337w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cohort_standardized_-24a4cd718ef72385d57fbc3eb0dbc47d-473x270.png 473w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1337px) 100vw, 1337px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Standardized cohort effect with fixed time mix, percent saying people try to be helpful<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the period effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"time-trend-helpful\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1337\" height=\"764\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2.png\" alt=\"Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying people try to be helpful\" class=\"wp-image-1776\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2.png 1337w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/time_standardized_he-28e70c9d0a1b012cf525b854897416f2-473x270.png 473w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1337px) 100vw, 1337px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Standardized time trend with fixed cohort mix, percent saying people try to be helpful<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again we see the same pattern: little change between the cohorts born between 1900 and 1940, and then a decline of more than 30 percentage points over 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And again, the period effect is comparatively small and generally increasing &#8212; but possibly declining in the most recent cycles of the survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cause-and-effect\">Cause and Effect?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It is plausible that the decline in trust is a contributing factor to the decline in happiness. If you believe that people are out to get you, and 80% of your friends agree, that\u2019s not a worldview conducive to a sense of well-being. And generational decline in trust precedes the decline in happiness, so it is at least a potential cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decline in trust-related beliefs also supports the interpretation that recent cohorts are <em>actually<\/em> unhappy, rather than interpreting the question differently, or being more willing than previous generations to say they are unhappy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I haven\u2019t done full-on causal modeling to quantify these relationships, but I ran a few regression models to explore. To reduce the number of researcher degrees of freedom, I asked ChatGPT to interpret the results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Differences in happiness across cohorts appear to be partly explained by differences in social outlook (trust, fairness, helpfulness), and these outlook variables behave like stable, cohort-structured traits rather than period-driven fluctuations.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The AI-generated summary of the experiments follows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"model-1-cross-sectional-association-complete-cases\">Model 1: Cross-sectional association (complete cases)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Specification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Outcome: <code>very_happy<\/code> (binary)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Predictors: <code>trust<\/code>, <code>fair<\/code>, <code>helpful<\/code> (all binary)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sample: complete cases with all variables observed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Purpose:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Estimate the <strong>cross-sectional relationship<\/strong> between social outlook and happiness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Provides baseline associations without accounting for cohort or period effects.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Interpretation:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coefficients represent <strong>conditional associations<\/strong> among individuals at a point in time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Answers: <em>Are people with a more positive outlook more likely to be very happy?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"model-2-outlook-cohort-period-restricted-sample\">Model 2: Outlook + cohort + period (restricted sample)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Specification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Outcome: <code>very_happy<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Predictors:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>trust<\/code>, <code>fair<\/code>, <code>helpful<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>cohort_c<\/code> (mean-centered birth year)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>year_c<\/code> (mean-centered survey year)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sample: respondents born \u2265 1940 with complete data<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Purpose:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Assess whether the outlook\u2013happiness relationship persists after accounting for:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cohort effects<\/strong> (differences across birth cohorts)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Period effects<\/strong> (changes over survey years)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Interpretation:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coefficients for outlook variables reflect <strong>within-cohort, within-period associations<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cohort and year coefficients capture <strong>linear trends<\/strong> in happiness after controlling for outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Answers:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Are outlook variables still associated with happiness after adjusting for historical context?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Is there an independent cohort or period trend?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"model-3-cohort-period-only-no-outlook-variables\">Model 3: Cohort + period only (no outlook variables)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Specification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Outcome: <code>very_happy<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Predictors:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>cohort_c<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>year_c<\/code><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sample: respondents born > 1940 (larger sample since outlook variables not required)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Purpose:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Estimate <strong>total cohort and period effects<\/strong> on happiness without controlling for outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Provides a baseline for comparison with Model 2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Interpretation:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cohort and year coefficients reflect <strong>combined (direct + indirect) effects<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Comparing to Model 2 shows how much of these effects are <strong>accounted for by outlook variables<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Answers:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>How does happiness vary across cohorts and over time in aggregate?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>How much do these patterns change when outlook is included?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"key-findings\">Key Findings<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Positive social outlook is associated with higher happiness.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trust, fairness, and helpfulness all have positive and statistically significant associations with being \u201cvery happy.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Estimated odds ratios:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trust: ~1.25<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fairness: ~1.36 (strongest)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Helpfulness: ~1.29<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These effects are modest in size and explain a small fraction of overall variation (Pseudo R\u00b2 \u2248 0.016).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>These relationships are stable across cohorts and time.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Adding cohort and survey year controls has little effect on the coefficients.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This suggests the outlook\u2013happiness relationship is primarily cross-sectional, not driven by historical shifts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cohort-and-period-effects\">Cohort and Period Effects<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Without controlling for outlook:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Later cohorts are less likely to report being very happy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is also a negative period trend (declining happiness over time).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>With outlook variables included:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The cohort effect becomes small and statistically insignificant.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The period effect remains negative and significant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"interpretation\">Interpretation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Outlook variables appear to mediate cohort differences in happiness.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Later cohorts tend to report lower trust, fairness, and helpfulness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These differences account for much of the observed cohort decline in happiness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Period effects persist independently.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There is a modest downward trend in happiness over time that is not explained by outlook variables.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"data-considerations\">Data Considerations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Approximately <strong>40% of observations are missing at least one outlook variable<\/strong>, reducing the complete-case sample.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This raises the possibility of <strong>selection bias<\/strong> in the estimates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"bottom-line\">Bottom Line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A more positive view of others (trust, fairness, helpfulness) is consistently associated with higher happiness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Differences in these outlook measures help explain why later cohorts report lower happiness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, there is also an independent downward trend in happiness over time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/CultureWar\/\/blog1-happy\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/CultureWar\/\/blog1-happy\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a previous article, I claimed that Young adults are not very happy. Now the World Happiness Report 2026 has confirmed that young people in North America and Western Europe are less happy than they were fifteen years ago, and less happy than previous generations. In this article, we\u2019ll look at results from three related questions in the General Social Survey (GSS): As we\u2019ll see, young adults in the United States have a more negative outlook than previous generations: they&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/04\/03\/trust-and-well-being\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[58,26,126,127],"class_list":["post-1766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-age-period-cohort-analysis","tag-general-social-survey","tag-happiness","tag-logistic-regression"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trust and Well-Being - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/04\/03\/trust-and-well-being\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trust and Well-Being - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In a previous article, I claimed that Young adults are not very happy. Now the World Happiness Report 2026 has confirmed that young people in North America and Western Europe are less happy than they were fifteen years ago, and less happy than previous generations. In this article, we\u2019ll look at results from three related questions in the General Social Survey (GSS): As we\u2019ll see, young adults in the United States have a more negative outlook than previous generations: they... 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Compared to previous generations at the same ages,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/nsfg_intent07-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":373,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/05\/young-christians-are-less-religious-than-the-previous-generation\/","url_meta":{"origin":1766,"position":4},"title":"Young Christians are less religious than the previous generation","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the first in a series of articles where I use data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to explore Differences in beliefs and attitudes between Christians and people with no religious affiliation (\"Nones\"),Generational differences between younger and older Christians, andGenerational differences between younger and older Nones. On several\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"age period cohort analysis\"","block_context":{"text":"age period cohort analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/age-period-cohort-analysis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation_by_year.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation_by_year.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation_by_year.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation_by_year.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1736,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/19\/young-adults-are-not-very-happy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1766,"position":5},"title":"Young Adults Are Not Very Happy","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 19, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 1972, the General Social Survey has asked respondents: \u201cTaken all together, how would you say things are these days\u2014would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?\u201d The following figure shows how the responses have changed over time and between birth cohorts. 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