{"id":179,"date":"2019-02-21T10:00:21","date_gmt":"2019-02-21T10:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=179"},"modified":"2019-02-21T14:13:29","modified_gmt":"2019-02-21T14:13:29","slug":"are-men-getting-married-later-or-never-both","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/21\/are-men-getting-married-later-or-never-both\/","title":{"rendered":"Are men getting married later or never?  Both."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/06\/the-marriage-strike-continues\/\">Last week I wrote about marriage patterns for women in the U.S.<\/a>  Now let&#8217;s see what&#8217;s happening with men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, I&#8217;m working with data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/nsfg\/nsfg_2015_2017_puf.htm\">National Survey of Family Growth<\/a>, which surveyed 29,192 men in the U.S. between 2002 and 2017.  I used <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kaplan%E2%80%93Meier_estimator\">Kaplan\u2013Meier estimation<\/a> to compute &#8220;survival&#8221; curves for the time until first marriage.  The following figure shows the results for men grouped by decade of birth:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8-405x270.png 405w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/marriage8.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><br><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The colored lines show the estimated curves; the gray lines show projections based on moderate assumptions about future marriage rates.  Two trends are apparent:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>From one generation to the next, men have been getting married later.  The median age at first marriage for men born in the 1950s was 26; for men born in the 1980s is it 30, and for men born in the 1990s, it is projected to be 35.<\/li><li>The fraction of men never married at age 44 was 18% for men born in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.  It is projected to increase to 30% for men born in the 1980s and 37% for men born in the 1990s.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, thing could change in the future and make these projections wrong.  But marriage rates in the last 5 years have been very low for both men and women.  In order to catch up to previous generations, young men would have to start marrying at unprecedented rates, and they would have to start soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For details of the methods I used for this analysis, you can read <a href=\"http:\/\/conference.scipy.org\/proceedings\/scipy2015\/pdfs\/allen_downey.pdf\">my paper from SciPy 2015<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And for even more details, you can read <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/AllenDowney\/MarriageNSFG\/blob\/master\/marriage.ipynb\">this Jupyter notebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As always, thank you to the good people who run the NSFG for making this data available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week I wrote about marriage patterns for women in the U.S. Now let&#8217;s see what&#8217;s happening with men. Again, I&#8217;m working with data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which surveyed 29,192 men in the U.S. between 2002 and 2017. I used Kaplan\u2013Meier estimation to compute &#8220;survival&#8221; curves for the time until first marriage. The following figure shows the results for men grouped by decade of birth: The colored lines show the estimated curves; the gray lines show&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/21\/are-men-getting-married-later-or-never-both\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[6,8,7],"class_list":["post-179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-marriage","tag-nsfg","tag-survival-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are men getting married later or never? Both. - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/21\/are-men-getting-married-later-or-never-both\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are men getting married later or never? Both. - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last week I wrote about marriage patterns for women in the U.S. Now let&#8217;s see what&#8217;s happening with men. Again, I&#8217;m working with data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which surveyed 29,192 men in the U.S. between 2002 and 2017. I used Kaplan\u2013Meier estimation to compute &#8220;survival&#8221; curves for the time until first marriage. The following figure shows the results for men grouped by decade of birth: The colored lines show the estimated curves; the gray lines show... 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I've worked on several studies using data from the NSFG, so it's time to do some updates! In 2015 I gave a talk at SciPy called \"Will Millennials Ever Get Married\"\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Screenshot-at-2019-02-06-10-02-10.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Screenshot-at-2019-02-06-10-02-10.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Screenshot-at-2019-02-06-10-02-10.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Screenshot-at-2019-02-06-10-02-10.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Screenshot-at-2019-02-06-10-02-10.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":498,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/10\/21\/millennials-are-not-getting-married\/","url_meta":{"origin":179,"position":1},"title":"Millennials are not getting married","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"In 2015 I wrote a paper called \"Will Millennials Ever Get Married?\" where I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage for women in the U.S, broken down by decade of birth. \u00a0 I found that women born in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"marriage\"","block_context":{"text":"marriage","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/marriage\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/marriage4-3.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":721,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/09\/name-that-distribution\/","url_meta":{"origin":179,"position":2},"title":"The Student-t model of Long-Tailed Distributions","author":"AllenDowney","date":"May 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"As I've mentioned, I'm working on a book called Probably Overthinking It, to be published in early 2023. It's intended for a general audience, so I'm not trying to do research, but I might have found something novel while working on a chapter about power law distributions. If you are\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/djia-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/djia-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/djia-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/djia-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1455,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/12\/11\/young-americans-are-marrying-later-or-never\/","url_meta":{"origin":179,"position":3},"title":"Young Americans are Marrying Later or Never","author":"AllenDowney","date":"December 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"I've written before about changes in marriage patterns in the U.S., and it's one of the examples in Chapter 13 of the new third edition of Think Stats. My analysis uses data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Today they released the most recent data, from surveys conducted\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/marriage_female23.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1496,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/01\/20\/1496\/","url_meta":{"origin":179,"position":4},"title":"Algorithmic Fairness","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the last in a series of excerpts from Elements of Data Science, now available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. This article is based on the Recidivism Case Study, which is about algorithmic fairness. The goal of the case study is to explain the statistical arguments presented in two\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":596,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/03\/simpsons-paradox-and-age-effects\/","url_meta":{"origin":179,"position":5},"title":"Simpson&#8217;s Paradox and Age Effects","author":"AllenDowney","date":"May 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"As people get older, do they become more racist, sexist, and homophobic? To find out, you could use data from the General Social Survey (GSS), which asks questions like: Do you think there should be laws against marriages between Blacks\/African-Americans and whites?Should a man who admits[mfn]If you find the wording\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"general social survey\"","block_context":{"text":"general social survey","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/general-social-survey\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fepol_vs_age_by_cohort10.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":181,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions\/181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}