{"id":1818,"date":"2026-05-28T18:21:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T18:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1818"},"modified":"2026-05-28T18:21:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T18:21:54","slug":"sexual-morality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/05\/28\/sexual-morality\/","title":{"rendered":"Sexual morality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This article is one of a series looking at changes in public opinion over the last 50 years, with a focus on culture war topics. In this installment, we\u2019ll look at responses to four questions in the General Social Survey (GSS) related to sexual activity:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Premarital sex<\/strong> (premarsx<\/code>): There\u2019s been a lot of discussion about the way morals and attitudes about sex are changing in this country. If a man and woman have sex relations before marriage, do you think it is always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Teen premarital sex<\/strong> (teensex<\/code>): What if they are in their early teens, say 14 to 16 years old? In that case, do you think sex relations before marriage are always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Extramarital sex<\/strong> (xmarsex<\/code>): What is your opinion about a married person having sexual relations with someone other than the marriage partner\u2014is it always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Same-sex relations<\/strong> (homosex<\/code>): What about sexual relations between two adults of the same sex\u2014do you think it is always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    As we\u2019ll see, answers to these questions have diverged in the last 50 years. A large majority answer that extramarital and teen sex are wrong, and that has barely changed (although opposition). At the same time, opposition to premarital sex and same-sex relations has declined substantially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In this article, we\u2019ll look at these trends and decompose them into cohort and period effects. In the next article, we\u2019ll look at the relationship between these responses and religion, both affiliation and attendance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We\u2019ll start with the first question, on premarital sex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Premarital sex<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The following figure shows the percentage of respondents saying premarital sex is always or almost always wrong, from 1972 to 2024. The shaded area shows the results from a Bayesian model that estimates the latent trend \u2014 that is, a slowly varying underlying level of opposition to premarital sex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Time<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Opposition to premarital sex has declined since 1972, from about 47% to about 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As always, when we see this kind of change over time, it might be caused by cohort or period effects, or a combination of the two. Using a Bayesian model, I estimate a cohort effect for each birth year and a period effect for each survey year. The following figure shows the resulting trajectory for each cohort over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Cohort<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Each line represents a single birth year. For example, the yellow line at the top shows the fitted trajectory for people born in 1900, who were 72 when the survey started in 1972 and 90 when they aged out in 1990. The blue line in the bottom right shows responses of people born in 2000, who became eligible to participate in the survey when they turned 18 in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    One pattern is clear: each cohort is less likely than the previous cohort to say that premarital sex is wrong. Among people born in 1900, it was more than 70%. Among people born in the 2000s, it is close to 10%. So that\u2019s a big difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    From these results, we can estimate the cohort and period effects separately. The following figure shows the cohort effect, standardized to control for the period effect by simulating responses as if every cohort was interviewed during every iteration of the survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Standardized<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The decline was steepest between the cohorts born in 1900 and 1950. After that, it leveled off, then declined again among the cohorts born in the 1980s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Now we can estimate the period effect, standardized to control for the cohort effect, shown in the following figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Standardized<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The period effect is smaller than the cohort effect \u2014 about 8 percentage points from peak to trough \u2014 and less consistent. Opposition to premarital sex increased between 1980 and 2000, which coincides with increasing awareness of AIDS and public messaging about sexual risk, as well as the rise of the Religious Right and \u201cfamily values\u201d politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But before I speculate about the causes of these patterns, it will be useful to look at the responses to the other questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When is sex wrong?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The following figure shows the estimated percentage who think sex is wrong (always or almost always) in each of the four scenarios: premarital, teen, extramarital, and same-sex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Composite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Reading from top to bottom:<\/p>\n\n\n\n