{"id":1846,"date":"2026-06-16T20:23:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:23:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1846"},"modified":"2026-06-16T20:23:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:23:39","slug":"you-would-choose-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/16\/you-would-choose-now\/","title":{"rendered":"You Would Choose Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2016, Barack Obama gave a commencement address at Howard University<\/a>, where he said<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born<\/strong>, and you didn\u2019t know ahead of time who you were going to be \u2014 what nationality, what gender, what race, whether you\u2019d be rich or poor, gay or straight, what faith you\u2019d be born into \u2014 you wouldn\u2019t choose 100 years ago. You wouldn\u2019t choose the fifties, or the sixties, or the seventies. You\u2019d choose right now. If you had to choose a time to be, in the words of Lorraine Hansberry, \u201cyoung, gifted, and black\u201d in America, you would choose right now<\/strong>. [Emphasis added]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Was he right? It\u2019s a broad claim \u2014 about racism, sexism, homophobia, and more \u2014 so I\u2019ll focus on the last sentence: If you are young, gifted, and Black, would you choose right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I\u2019ll focus on just one part of the answer: public opinions about race relations and civil rights. On these topics, the General Social Survey includes several questions that have been asked repeatedly \u2014 although some of them were dropped from the survey before Obama\u2019s assertion in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an example, we\u2019ll start with a question about open housing, which has been asked since 1973, and shows one of the clearest trends over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Open housing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The GSS asks this question about open housing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suppose there is a community-wide vote on the general housing issue. There are two possible laws to vote on. (A) One law says that a homeowner can decide for himself whom to sell his house to, even if he prefers not to sell to someone because of their race or color. (B) The second law says that a homeowner cannot refuse to sell to someone because of their race or color. Which law would you vote for?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following figure shows the percentage of respondents who chose the first law, which allows someone selling their house to discriminate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Time
Time series: percent voting for homeowner discretion.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 1973, about 65% favored the first law; in 2024, it had dropped below 20%. When public opinion changes as fast as that, it is usually the result of two effects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n