{"id":1902,"date":"2026-09-04T13:19:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1902"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:19:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:19:22","slug":"new-book","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/09\/04\/new-book\/","title":{"rendered":"New Book!"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance<\/em>. It’s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): https:\/\/leanpub.com\/ywcn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you would like to check it out, the “Free Sample” has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address, you can get the “Community Edition”, which has the first two chapters — and that’s all there are for now. Chapter 3 is scheduled for October 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I add chapters over the next six months, I will post excerpts on Substack<\/a>. So if you only follow this blog and not my Substack, you might want to sign up over there. I will continue to post on other topics here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What’s it about?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you read this post from a couple of weeks ago<\/a>, you already know the premise of the book: in 2016, Barack Obama gave a commencement address at Howard University, where he said<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born<\/strong>, and you didn\u2019t know ahead of time who you were going to be \u2014 what nationality, what gender, what race, whether you\u2019d be rich or poor, gay or straight, what faith you\u2019d be born into \u2014 you wouldn\u2019t choose 100 years ago. You wouldn\u2019t choose the fifties, or the sixties, or the seventies. You\u2019d choose right now.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That was a bold thing to say to new college graduates, even in 2016. So I read Obama’s address with a skeptical eye. I wondered if he was right in 2016, and if so, whether he would still be right in 2026. And I thought about how to prove or disprove it. That’s what the book is about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter 1 is an introduction that includes an example of the primary statistical method I’ll use, period-cohort analysis. Chapter 2 is about sexual orientation. I plan to publish Chapter 3, which is about gender, on October 1. And then Chapter 4, about race, on November 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the reason I am publishing incrementally is to encourage reader feedback, so I welcome comments and suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if you are interested in the technical details, there’s an appendix that explains the analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. It’s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights. I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): https:\/\/leanpub.com\/ywcn If you would like to check it out, the “Free Sample” has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address,…<\/p>\n

Read More Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[141],"class_list":["post-1902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-announcement"],"yoast_head":"\nNew Book! - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/09\/04\/new-book\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Book! - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. 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If you want to start\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-8.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1664,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/29\/attention-chinese-readers\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":2},"title":"Attention, Chinese Readers","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Chinese edition of Probably Overthinking It is available now (also here)! If you have the Chinese edition, there are two sections you won't get to read -- so I am including them here. 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What's new in the second edition? I wrote a new Chapter 1 that introduces conditional probability using the Linda the Banker problem and data from the General Social Survey.I added new chapters on survival\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"bayesian statistics\"","block_context":{"text":"bayesian statistics","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/bayesian-statistics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cover of Think Bayes second edition","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/think_bayes_2e_cover.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1255,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/08\/think-python-goes-to-production\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":5},"title":"Think Python Goes to Production","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Think Python has moved into production, on schedule for the official publication date in July -- but maybe earlier if things go well. To celebrate, I have posted the next batch of chapters on the new site, up through Chapter 12, which is about Markov text analysis and generation, one\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Think_Python_3e_cover.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1902"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1905,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902\/revisions\/1905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}