{"id":1902,"date":"2026-09-04T13:19:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=1902"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:19:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:19:22","slug":"new-book","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/09\/04\/new-book\/","title":{"rendered":"New Book!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cover-concept-spectrum-front.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1903\" style=\"width:268px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cover-concept-spectrum-front.png 540w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cover-concept-spectrum-front-200x300.png 200w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cover-concept-spectrum-front-180x270.png 180w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am working on a new book called <em>You Would Choose Now: Measuring America&#8217;s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance<\/em>. It&#8217;s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): <a href=\"https:\/\/leanpub.com\/ywcn\">https:\/\/leanpub.com\/ywcn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you would like to check it out, the &#8220;Free Sample&#8221; has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address, you can get the &#8220;Community Edition&#8221;, which has the first two chapters &#8212; and that&#8217;s all there are for now. Chapter 3 is scheduled for October 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I add chapters over the next six months, I will post excerpts on <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.substack.com\/\">Substack<\/a>. So if you only follow this blog and not my Substack, you might want to sign up over there. I will continue to post on other topics here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What&#8217;s it about?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you read <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/16\/you-would-choose-now\/\">this post from a couple of weeks ago<\/a>, you already know the premise of the book: in 2016, Barack Obama gave a commencement address at Howard University, where he said<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born<\/strong>, and you didn\u2019t know ahead of time who you were going to be \u2014 what nationality, what gender, what race, whether you\u2019d be rich or poor, gay or straight, what faith you\u2019d be born into \u2014 you wouldn\u2019t choose 100 years ago. You wouldn\u2019t choose the fifties, or the sixties, or the seventies. <strong>You\u2019d choose right now.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That was a bold thing to say to new college graduates, even in 2016. So I read Obama&#8217;s address with a skeptical eye. I wondered if he was right in 2016, and if so, whether he would still be right in 2026. And I thought about how to prove or disprove it. That&#8217;s what the book is about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chapter 1 is an introduction that includes an example of the primary statistical method I&#8217;ll use, period-cohort analysis. Chapter 2 is about sexual orientation. I plan to publish Chapter 3, which is about gender, on October 1. And then Chapter 4, about race, on November 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Part of the reason I am publishing incrementally is to encourage reader feedback, so I welcome comments and suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if you are interested in the technical details, there&#8217;s an <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/YouWouldChooseNow\/\">appendix that explains the analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America&#8217;s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. It&#8217;s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights. I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): https:\/\/leanpub.com\/ywcn If you would like to check it out, the &#8220;Free Sample&#8221; has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address,&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/09\/04\/new-book\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[141],"class_list":["post-1902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-announcement"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Book! - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/09\/04\/new-book\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Book! - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America&#8217;s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. 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For the second edition of Think Bayes, I plan\u00a0to use it to demonstrate conditional probability.\u00a0 In the following notebook, I replicate their analysis (loosely!) using data from the General Social Survey\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/economist-300x211.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":820,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/11\/09\/chasing-the-overton-window\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":1},"title":"Chasing the Overton Window","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"On November 9 I presented a talk at PyData NYC with the title \"Chasing the Overton Window\". The video from this talk is now available: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=VpuWECpTxmM This talk is based on a chapter of my forthcoming book called Probably Overthinking It that is about using evidence and reason to answer\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/VpuWECpTxmM\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1027,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/09\/19\/the-overton-paradox-in-three-graphs\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":2},"title":"The Overton Paradox in Three Graphs","author":"AllenDowney","date":"September 19, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Older people are more likely to say they are conservative. And older people believe more conservative things. But if you group people by decade of birth, most groups get more liberal as they get older. So if people get more liberal, on average, why are they more likely to say\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/overton5.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1229,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/15\/think-python-third-edition\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":3},"title":"Think Python third edition!","author":"AllenDowney","date":"February 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"I am happy to announce the third edition of Think Python, which will be published by O'Reilly Media later this year. You can read the online version of the book here. I've posted the Preface and the first four chapters -- more on the way soon! You can read the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":929,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/04\/24\/the-overton-paradox\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":4},"title":"The Overton Paradox","author":"AllenDowney","date":"April 24, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Chapter 12 of Probably Overthinking It is about three trends that form what I'm calling the Overton Paradox: Older people are more likely to say they are conservative. And older people hold more conservative views. But people don't become more conservative as they get older -- on average they get\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/overton4-1.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1311,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/06\/14\/should-divorce-be-more-difficult\/","url_meta":{"origin":1902,"position":5},"title":"Should divorce be more difficult?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"June 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\"The Christian right is coming for divorce next,\" according to this recent Vox article, and \"Some conservatives want to make it a lot harder to dissolve a marriage.\" As always when I read an article like this, I want to see data -- and the General Social Survey has just\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/divorce1-2.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1902"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1905,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1902\/revisions\/1905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}