{"id":432,"date":"2020-02-16T01:12:55","date_gmt":"2020-02-16T01:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=432"},"modified":"2020-05-04T15:09:01","modified_gmt":"2020-05-04T15:09:01","slug":"the-girl-named-florida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/02\/16\/the-girl-named-florida\/","title":{"rendered":"The Girl Named Florida"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/book\/show\/2272880.The_Drunkard_s_Walk\">The Drunkard&#8217;s Walk<\/a>, Leonard Mlodinow presents &#8220;The Girl Named Florida Problem&#8221;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;In a family with two children, what are the chances, if [at least] one of the children is a girl named Florida, that both children are girls?&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>I added &#8220;at least&#8221; to Mlodinow&#8217;s statement of the problem to avoid a subtle ambiguity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wrote about this problem in <a href=\"http:\/\/allendowney.blogspot.com\/2011\/11\/girl-named-florida-solutions.html\">a previous article from 2011<\/a>.  As you can see in the comments, my explanation was not met with universal acclaim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time, I want to take a different approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, to avoid some real-world complications, let&#8217;s assume that this question takes place in an imaginary city called Statesville where:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Every family has two children.<\/li><li>50% of children are male and 50% are female.<\/li><li>All children are named after U.S. states, and all state names are chosen with equal probability.<\/li><li>Genders and names within each family are chosen independently.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, rather than solve it mathematically, I&#8217;ll demonstrate it computationally:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nbviewer.jupyter.org\/github\/AllenDowney\/BiteSizeBayes\/blob\/master\/florida.ipynb\">You can view my solution in this Jupyter notebook<\/a>,<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/BiteSizeBayes\/blob\/master\/florida.ipynb\">Or you can run it yourself on Colab<\/a>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Either way, I hope you enjoy getting your head around this problem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In The Drunkard&#8217;s Walk, Leonard Mlodinow presents &#8220;The Girl Named Florida Problem&#8221;: &#8220;In a family with two children, what are the chances, if [at least] one of the children is a girl named Florida, that both children are girls?&#8221; I added &#8220;at least&#8221; to Mlodinow&#8217;s statement of the problem to avoid a subtle ambiguity. I wrote about this problem in a previous article from 2011. As you can see in the comments, my explanation was not met with universal acclaim&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/02\/16\/the-girl-named-florida\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[66,65],"class_list":["post-432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-girl-named-florida","tag-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Girl Named Florida - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/02\/16\/the-girl-named-florida\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Girl Named Florida - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In The Drunkard&#8217;s Walk, Leonard Mlodinow presents &#8220;The Girl Named Florida Problem&#8221;: &#8220;In a family with two children, what are the chances, if [at least] one of the children is a girl named Florida, that both children are girls?&#8221; I added &#8220;at least&#8221; to Mlodinow&#8217;s statement of the problem to avoid a subtle ambiguity. I wrote about this problem in a previous article from 2011. As you can see in the comments, my explanation was not met with universal acclaim.... 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