{"id":519,"date":"2021-01-24T22:39:52","date_gmt":"2021-01-24T22:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=519"},"modified":"2021-01-24T22:39:52","modified_gmt":"2021-01-24T22:39:52","slug":"the-retreat-from-religion-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/24\/the-retreat-from-religion-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"The Retreat From Religion Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A few years ago I wrote <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.scientificamerican.com\/observations\/the-u-s-is-retreating-from-religion\/\">an article for the Scientific American blog<\/a> where I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to describe changes in religious affiliation in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.blogspot.com\/2017\/10\/the-retreat-from-religion-is.html\">this longer article<\/a> I described changes in religious belief as well, including belief in God, interpretation of the Bible, and confidence in religious institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those articles were based on GSS data released in 2017, which included interviews up to 2016.  Now the GSS has released additional data from interviews conducted in 2017 and 2018, including young adults born in 1999 and 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So it&#8217;s time to update the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Religious affiliation by cohort<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The following figure shows religious affiliation by year of birth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-1536x1024.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort-405x270.png 405w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_cohort.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The youngest group in the survey, people born between 1996 and 2000, depart from several long-term trends:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>They are more likely to identify as Protestant than the previous cohort, and slightly more likely to identify as Catholic.<\/li><li>And they are less likely to report no religious preference.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There are only 201 people in this group, so these results might be an anomaly.  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/18\/college-freshmen-are-more-godless-than-ever\/\">Data from other sources<\/a> indicates that young adults are less religious than older groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Religious affiliation by year<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The following figure shows religious affiliation by year of interview along with predictions based on a simple model of generational replacement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-528\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-1536x1024.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996-405x270.png 405w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/affiliation_year_1996.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the reversal of trends in the previous figure, the long-term trends in religious affiliation continue:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The fraction of people who identify as Protestant or Christian is declining and accelerating.<\/li><li>The fraction who identify as Catholic has started to decline.<\/li><li>The fraction with no religious affiliation is increasing and accelerating.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on the previous batch of data, I predicted that there would be more Nones than Catholics in 2020.  With the most recent data, it looks like the cross-over might be ahead of schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On these trends, there will be more Nones than Protestants sometime after 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the next article, I&#8217;ll present related trends in religious belief and confidence in religious institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A few years ago I wrote an article for the Scientific American blog where I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to describe changes in religious affiliation in the U.S. And in this longer article I described changes in religious belief as well, including belief in God, interpretation of the Bible, and confidence in religious institutions. Those articles were based on GSS data released in 2017, which included interviews up to 2016. Now the GSS has released additional&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/24\/the-retreat-from-religion-continues\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[57,21],"class_list":["post-519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gss","tag-religion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Retreat From Religion Continues - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/24\/the-retreat-from-religion-continues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Retreat From Religion Continues - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A few years ago I wrote an article for the Scientific American blog where I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to describe changes in religious affiliation in the U.S. And in this longer article I described changes in religious belief as well, including belief in God, interpretation of the Bible, and confidence in religious institutions. 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In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"abortion\"","block_context":{"text":"abortion","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/abortion\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation4.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation4.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":389,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/06\/generational-changes-in-religious-belief-and-public-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":519,"position":1},"title":"Generational changes in religious belief and public policy","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 6, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the second in a series of articles where I use data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to explore Differences in beliefs and attitudes between Christians and people with no religious affiliation (\"Nones\"),Generational differences between younger and older Christians, andGenerational differences between younger and older Nones. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"age period cohort analysis\"","block_context":{"text":"age period cohort analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/age-period-cohort-analysis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":985,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/07\/16\/homophobia-and-religion\/","url_meta":{"origin":519,"position":2},"title":"Homophobia and Religion","author":"AllenDowney","date":"July 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Two weeks ago I published an excerpt from Probably Overthinking It where I presented data from the General Social Survey showing a steep decrease in the percentage of people in the U.S. who think homosexuality is wrong. Last week I followed up to answer a question about data from Pew\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/reliten2.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/18\/young-christians-are-more-sex-positive-than-the-previous-generation\/","url_meta":{"origin":519,"position":3},"title":"Young Christians are more sex-positive than the previous generation","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the fifth and probably final in a series of articles where I use data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to explore Differences in beliefs and attitudes between Christians and people with no religious affiliation (\"Nones\"),Generational differences between younger and older Christians, andGenerational differences between younger and older\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"age period cohort analysis\"","block_context":{"text":"age period cohort analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/age-period-cohort-analysis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation8.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation8.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation8.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation8.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation8.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":399,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/10\/generational-changes-in-public-spending-priorities\/","url_meta":{"origin":519,"position":4},"title":"Generational changes in public spending priorities","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 10, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the fourth in a series of articles where I use data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to explore Differences in beliefs and attitudes between Christians and people with no religious affiliation (\"Nones\"),Generational differences between younger and older Christians, andGenerational differences between younger and older Nones. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"age period cohort analysis\"","block_context":{"text":"age period cohort analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/age-period-cohort-analysis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation5.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/generation5.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":373,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/05\/young-christians-are-less-religious-than-the-previous-generation\/","url_meta":{"origin":519,"position":5},"title":"Young Christians are less religious than the previous generation","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the first in a series of articles where I use data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to explore Differences in beliefs and attitudes between Christians and people with no religious affiliation (\"Nones\"),Generational differences between younger and older Christians, andGenerational differences between younger and older Nones. 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