{"id":748,"date":"2022-07-23T19:38:12","date_gmt":"2022-07-23T19:38:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=748"},"modified":"2022-07-23T19:38:12","modified_gmt":"2022-07-23T19:38:12","slug":"almost-done","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/07\/23\/almost-done\/","title":{"rendered":"Almost done?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I thought I would be done this week, but it looks like there will be one more chapter. If you don&#8217;t know, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/24\/probably-overthinking-the-book\/\">I am working on a book<\/a> that includes updated articles from this blog, plus new examples, and pulls the whole thing together. So far, it&#8217;s going well. I have consistently finished one chapter per month and I am almost done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem is that several times a chapter has mitosed (it&#8217;s a word) into multiple chapters. In the most extreme case, the material I thought would be one chapter turned into four, and I think I&#8217;m going to cut one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most recently, what I thought was the last chapter has turned into two. The first is about Simpson&#8217;s paradox, including this mandatory example from the ubiquitous penguin dataset:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"424\" height=\"280\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/simpson_penguin.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-750\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/simpson_penguin.png 424w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/simpson_penguin-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/simpson_penguin-409x270.png 409w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The new chapter is about Overton&#8217;s window. Fortunately, before the mitosis, I had written a substantial chunk of it, so I think I can finish it in less than a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have posted a few excerpts from the book already, about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/16\/prestons-paradox\/\">Preston&#8217;s paradox<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/09\/name-that-distribution\/\">long-tailed distributions<\/a>, and our old friend <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/02\/how-gaussian-is-it\/\">the Gaussian distribution<\/a>. Once I send the draft off for technical review, I should have time to post a few more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until then, if you would like to get infrequent email announcements about the book, please sign up below. I&#8217;ll let you know about milestones, promotions, and other news, but not more than one email per month. I will not share your email or use this list for any other purpose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- Begin Mailchimp Signup Form -->\n<link href=\"\/\/cdn-images.mailchimp.com\/embedcode\/classic-10_7_dtp.css\" rel=\"stylesheet\" type=\"text\/css\">\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\n\t#mc_embed_signup{background:#fff; clear:left; font:14px Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;  width:600px;}\n\t\/* Add your own Mailchimp form style overrides in your site stylesheet or in this style block.\n\t   We recommend moving this block and the preceding CSS link to the HEAD of your HTML file. *\/\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form action=\"https:\/\/greenteapress.us14.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=bbc482a53c30426b826d801fb&amp;id=c82e707e6f\" method=\"post\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" target=\"_blank\" novalidate=\"\">\n    <div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n\t<h2>Probably Overthinking It mailing list<\/h2>\n<div class=\"indicates-required\"><span class=\"asterisk\">*<\/span> indicates required<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-field-group\">\n\t<label for=\"mce-EMAIL\">Email Address  <span class=\"asterisk\">*<\/span>\n<\/label>\n\t<input type=\"email\" value=\"\" name=\"EMAIL\" class=\"required email\" id=\"mce-EMAIL\">\n<\/div>\n\t<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear foot\">\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-error-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-success-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>    <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->\n    <div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"b_bbc482a53c30426b826d801fb_c82e707e6f\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"optionalParent\">\n            <div class=\"clear foot\">\n                <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" name=\"subscribe\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\">\n                <p class=\"brandingLogo\"><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/h0neI1\" title=\"Mailchimp - email marketing made easy and fun\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/eep.io\/mc-cdn-images\/template_images\/branding_logo_text_dark_dtp.svg\"><\/a><\/p>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/downloads.mailchimp.com\/js\/mc-validate.js\"><\/script><script type=\"text\/javascript\">(function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true);<\/script>\n<!--End mc_embed_signup-->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I thought I would be done this week, but it looks like there will be one more chapter. If you don&#8217;t know, I am working on a book that includes updated articles from this blog, plus new examples, and pulls the whole thing together. So far, it&#8217;s going well. I have consistently finished one chapter per month and I am almost done. The problem is that several times a chapter has mitosed (it&#8217;s a word) into multiple chapters. In the&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/07\/23\/almost-done\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[94],"class_list":["post-748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-book"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Almost done? - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/07\/23\/almost-done\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Almost done? - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I thought I would be done this week, but it looks like there will be one more chapter. If you don&#8217;t know, I am working on a book that includes updated articles from this blog, plus new examples, and pulls the whole thing together. So far, it&#8217;s going well. I have consistently finished one chapter per month and I am almost done. The problem is that several times a chapter has mitosed (it&#8217;s a word) into multiple chapters. In the... 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I finished the last two chapters of Probably Overthinking It last week and sent a complete draft of the book off for technical review. Yay! In the last chapter, I used some methodology I thought was worth reporting, but too technical for the book, which is intended\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/overton3-scaled.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":956,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/10\/abstracts-and-keywords\/","url_meta":{"origin":748,"position":1},"title":"Abstracts and keywords","author":"AllenDowney","date":"June 10, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As Probably Overthinking It approaches the finish line, there are just a few more tasks: I am working on the index and -- as I have recently learned -- I also have to write a 200-word abstract, a list of keywords for each chapter, and a 250-word abstract for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1664,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/29\/attention-chinese-readers\/","url_meta":{"origin":748,"position":2},"title":"Attention, Chinese Readers","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Chinese edition of Probably Overthinking It is available now (also here)! If you have the Chinese edition, there are two sections you won't get to read -- so I am including them here. Here is an excerpt from Chapter 3, including the deleted paragraph: In the Present The women\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"book\"","block_context":{"text":"book","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/book\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/6a45a65e6a7b3201af0f74c7b7df4d57ce5c5976972ce0e69538a1914fa5cc5b.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1357,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/08\/23\/probably-the-book\/","url_meta":{"origin":748,"position":3},"title":"Probably the Book","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I had the pleasure of presenting a keynote at posit::conf(2024). When the video is available, I will post it here [UPDATE here it is]. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YKMZIzYBgTk In the meantime, you can read the slides, if you don't mind spoilers. For people at the conference who don't know me, this\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1553,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/05\/28\/announcing-think-linear-algebra\/","url_meta":{"origin":748,"position":4},"title":"Announcing Think Linear Algebra","author":"AllenDowney","date":"May 28, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been thinking about Think Linear Algebra for more than a decade, and recently I started working on it in earnest. If you want to get a sense of it, I've posted a draft chapter as a Jupyter notebook. In one way, I am glad I waited -- I think\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"linear algebra\"","block_context":{"text":"linear algebra","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/linear-algebra\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/think_linear_algebra_fake_cover.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1097,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/11\/07\/we-have-a-book\/","url_meta":{"origin":748,"position":5},"title":"We Have a Book!","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 7, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"My copy of Probably Overthinking It has arrived! If you want a copy for yourself, you can get a 30% discount if you order from the publisher and use the code UCPNEW. You can also order from Amazon or, if you want to support independent bookstores, from Bookshop.org. The official\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/IMG_20231107_104338_7.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=748"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":751,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748\/revisions\/751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}