{"id":753,"date":"2022-08-22T13:57:12","date_gmt":"2022-08-22T13:57:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=753"},"modified":"2022-08-22T13:57:12","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T13:57:12","slug":"off-to-technical-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/08\/22\/off-to-technical-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Off to Technical Review"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I have news. I finished the last two chapters of Probably Overthinking It<\/em> last week and sent a complete draft of the book off for technical review. Yay!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last chapter, I used some methodology I thought was worth reporting, but too technical for the book, which is intended for an intelligent general audience. So I’ve started a public site for the book<\/a>, where I will post technical details from each chapter and maybe some of the material that I decided to cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last chapter is about changes in political beliefs over the last 50 years, particularly along the axis of liberal and conservative views. I found 15 questions in the General Social Survey (GSS) where liberals and conservatives give different answers by the widest margin. The following figure shows the topics, which will come as no surprise, and the differences between the groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Based on the answers to these questions, I estimate a score for each respondent that quantifies how conservative their beliefs are. By this measure, people have been getting more liberal, pretty consistently, for the last 50 years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And it’s not just liberals becoming more liberal. People who consider themselves conservative are more liberal than they used to be, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That gray line is at 6.8 conservative responses, which was the expected level in 1974 among people who called themselves liberal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, suppose you take a time machine back to 1974, find an average liberal, and bring them to the turn of the millennium. Based on their survey responses, they would be indistinguishable from the average moderate in 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if you bring them to 2021, their quaint 1970s liberalism would be almost as far to the right as the average conservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are curious about the methodology, here’s the article explaining where these results came from<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you would like to get occasional email announcements about the book, please sign up for my mailing list<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have news. I finished the last two chapters of Probably Overthinking It last week and sent a complete draft of the book off for technical review. Yay! In the last chapter, I used some methodology I thought was worth reporting, but too technical for the book, which is intended for an intelligent general audience. So I’ve started a public site for the book, where I will post technical details from each chapter and maybe some of the material that…<\/p>\n

Read More Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nOff to Technical Review - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/08\/22\/off-to-technical-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Off to Technical Review - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I have news. 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If you don't know, I am working on a book that includes updated articles from this blog, plus new examples, and pulls the whole thing together. So far, it's going well. I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"book\"","block_context":{"text":"book","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/book\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/simpson_penguin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1357,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/08\/23\/probably-the-book\/","url_meta":{"origin":753,"position":1},"title":"Probably the Book","author":"AllenDowney","date":"August 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I had the pleasure of presenting a keynote at posit::conf(2024). When the video is available, I will post it here [UPDATE here it is]. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YKMZIzYBgTk In the meantime, you can read the slides, if you don't mind spoilers. For people at the conference who don't know me, this\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/are_you_normal_windshield_wiper.gif?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1173,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/04\/the-center-moves-faster-than-you\/","url_meta":{"origin":753,"position":2},"title":"The Center Moves Faster Than You","author":"AllenDowney","date":"January 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In May 2022, Elon Musk tweeted this cartoon: The creator of the cartoon, Colin Wright, explained it like this: At the outset, I stand happily beside 'my fellow liberal,' who is slightly to my left. In 2012 he sprints to the left, dragging out the left end of the political\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1255,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/08\/think-python-goes-to-production\/","url_meta":{"origin":753,"position":3},"title":"Think Python Goes to Production","author":"AllenDowney","date":"March 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Think Python has moved into production, on schedule for the official publication date in July -- but maybe earlier if things go well. To celebrate, I have posted the next batch of chapters on the new site, up through Chapter 12, which is about Markov text analysis and generation, one\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Think_Python_3e_cover.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":956,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/10\/abstracts-and-keywords\/","url_meta":{"origin":753,"position":4},"title":"Abstracts and keywords","author":"AllenDowney","date":"June 10, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As Probably Overthinking It approaches the finish line, there are just a few more tasks: I am working on the index and -- as I have recently learned -- I also have to write a 200-word abstract, a list of keywords for each chapter, and a 250-word abstract for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1411,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/11\/10\/zipfs-law\/","url_meta":{"origin":753,"position":5},"title":"War and Peace and Zipf’s Law","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 10, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Elements of Data Science is in print now, available from Lulu.com and online booksellers. 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