{"id":802,"date":"2022-09-25T16:20:50","date_gmt":"2022-09-25T16:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=802"},"modified":"2022-09-25T16:38:51","modified_gmt":"2022-09-25T16:38:51","slug":"on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","title":{"rendered":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On September 25, 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Eliud_Kipchoge\">Eliud Kipchoge<\/a> ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon.<br><br><a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.blogspot.com\/2018\/09\/two-hour-marathon-in-2031-maybe.html\">In a previous article<\/a>, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break the two hour barrier in 2036, plus or minus five years.<br><br>Now it is time to update my predictions in light of the new record.&nbsp; The following figure shows the progression of world record speed since 1970 (orange dots), a linear fit to the data (green line) and a 90% predictive confidence interval (shaded area).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"424\" height=\"280\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png 424w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon-409x270.png 409w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This model predicts that we will see a two-hour marathon in 2035 plus or minus 6 years. Since the last two points are above the long-term trend, we might expect to cross the finish line on the early end of that range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This analysis is one of the examples in Chapter 17 of <em><a href=\"https:\/\/greenteapress.com\/wp\/think-bayes\/\">Think Bayes<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/ThinkBayes2\/chap17.html#marathon-world-record\">you can read it here<\/a>, or you can <a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/ThinkBayes2\/blob\/master\/notebooks\/chap17.ipynb\">click here to run the code in a Colab notebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>If you like this sort of thing, you will like my forthcoming book, called <em>Probably Overthinking It<\/em>, which is about using evidence and reason to answer questions and guide decision making. If you would like to get an occasional update about the book, please <a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/h0nfbX\">join my mailing list<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On September 25, 2022, Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon. In a previous article, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On September 25, 2022, Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon. In a previous article, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break... Read More Read More\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AllenDowney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"AllenDowney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"AllenDowney\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207\"},\"headline\":\"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\"},\"wordCount\":253,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\",\"name\":\"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\",\"width\":424,\"height\":280},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Probably Overthinking It\",\"description\":\"Data science, Bayesian Statistics, and other ideas\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Probably Overthinking It\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/probably_logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/probably_logo.png\",\"width\":714,\"height\":784,\"caption\":\"Probably Overthinking It\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/x.com\/AllenDowney\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/allendowney\/\",\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/allendowney.bsky.social\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207\",\"name\":\"AllenDowney\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fb01b3a7f7190bea1bbf7f0852e686c2f8c03b099222df2ce4bc7926f15bcb43?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fb01b3a7f7190bea1bbf7f0852e686c2f8c03b099222df2ce4bc7926f15bcb43?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"AllenDowney\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/author\/allendowney_6dbrc4\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It","og_description":"On September 25, 2022, Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon. In a previous article, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break... Read More Read More","og_url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","og_site_name":"Probably Overthinking It","article_published_time":"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"AllenDowney","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@AllenDowney","twitter_site":"@AllenDowney","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"AllenDowney","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/"},"author":{"name":"AllenDowney","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207"},"headline":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035","datePublished":"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00","dateModified":"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/"},"wordCount":253,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","name":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png","datePublished":"2022-09-25T16:20:50+00:00","dateModified":"2022-09-25T16:38:51+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png","width":424,"height":280},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/","name":"Probably Overthinking It","description":"Data science, Bayesian Statistics, and other ideas","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"Probably Overthinking It","url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/probably_logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/probably_logo.png","width":714,"height":784,"caption":"Probably Overthinking It"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/AllenDowney","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/allendowney\/","https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/allendowney.bsky.social"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/4e5bfb2e9af6c3446cb0031a7bf83207","name":"AllenDowney","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fb01b3a7f7190bea1bbf7f0852e686c2f8c03b099222df2ce4bc7926f15bcb43?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fb01b3a7f7190bea1bbf7f0852e686c2f8c03b099222df2ce4bc7926f15bcb43?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"AllenDowney"},"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/author\/allendowney_6dbrc4\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1059,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/10\/09\/another-step-toward-a-two-hour-marathon\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":0},"title":"Another step toward a two-hour marathon","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is an update to an analysis I run each time the marathon world record is broken. If you like this sort of thing, you will like my forthcoming book, Probably Overthinking It, which is available for preorder now. On October 8, 2023, Kelvin Kiptum ran the Chicago Marathon in\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-5.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1085,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/10\/28\/why-are-you-so-slow\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":1},"title":"Why are you so slow?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 28, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Recently a shoe store in France ran a promotion called \"Rob It to Get It\", which invited customers to try to steal something by grabbing it and running out of the store. But there was a catch -- the \"security guard\" was a professional sprinter, M\u00e9ba Mickael Zeze. As you\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/running2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/running2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/running2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/running2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1646,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2025\/11\/04\/its-levels\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":2},"title":"It&#8217;s Levels","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Reddit post asks \"Amateur athletes of Reddit: what's your 'There's levels to this shit' experience from your sport?\" Responses included: We have some good runners who can win local races ... And then you realise that if you put them in a 5000m race with Olympic-level athletes they'd\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"lognormal distribution\"","block_context":{"text":"lognormal distribution","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/lognormal-distribution\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/212090bf9c6718b7d51f02945d3cb353d999e9243739e5c24535e8f5f36f013e.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1440,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2024\/11\/28\/hazard-and-survival\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":3},"title":"Hazard and Survival","author":"AllenDowney","date":"November 28, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Here\u2019s a question from the Reddit statistics forum. If I have a tumor that I\u2019ve been told has a malignancy rate of 2% per year, does that compound? So after 5 years there\u2019s a 10% chance it will turn malignant? This turns out to be an interesting question, because the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1050,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2023\/10\/06\/how-does-world-population-grow\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":4},"title":"How Does World Population Grow?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"October 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Recently I posed this question on Twitter: \"Since 1960, has world population grown exponentially, quadratically, linearly, or logarithmically?\" Here are the responses: By a narrow margin, the most popular answer is correct -- since 1960 world population growth has been roughly linear. I know this because it's the topic of\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-at-2023-10-06-18-00-06.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-at-2023-10-06-18-00-06.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-at-2023-10-06-18-00-06.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-at-2023-10-06-18-00-06.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":220,"url":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2019\/05\/16\/foundations-of-data-science\/","url_meta":{"origin":802,"position":5},"title":"Foundations of data science?","author":"AllenDowney","date":"May 16, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Foundation\" is one of several words I would like to ban from all discussion of higher education. \u00a0Others include \"liberal arts\", \"rigor\", and \"service class\", but I'll write about them another time. \u00a0Right now, \"foundation\" is on my mind because of a new book from Microsoft Research, Foundations of Data\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"data science\"","block_context":{"text":"data science","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/tag\/data-science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=802"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":807,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802\/revisions\/807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}