{"id":802,"date":"2022-09-25T16:20:50","date_gmt":"2022-09-25T16:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/?p=802"},"modified":"2022-09-25T16:38:51","modified_gmt":"2022-09-25T16:38:51","slug":"on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/","title":{"rendered":"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On September 25, 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Eliud_Kipchoge\">Eliud Kipchoge<\/a> ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon.<br><br><a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.blogspot.com\/2018\/09\/two-hour-marathon-in-2031-maybe.html\">In a previous article<\/a>, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break the two hour barrier in 2036, plus or minus five years.<br><br>Now it is time to update my predictions in light of the new record.&nbsp; The following figure shows the progression of world record speed since 1970 (orange dots), a linear fit to the data (green line) and a 90% predictive confidence interval (shaded area).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"424\" height=\"280\" src=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon.png 424w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/two-hour-marathon-409x270.png 409w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This model predicts that we will see a two-hour marathon in 2035 plus or minus 6 years. Since the last two points are above the long-term trend, we might expect to cross the finish line on the early end of that range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This analysis is one of the examples in Chapter 17 of <em><a href=\"https:\/\/greenteapress.com\/wp\/think-bayes\/\">Think Bayes<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/allendowney.github.io\/ThinkBayes2\/chap17.html#marathon-world-record\">you can read it here<\/a>, or you can <a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/github\/AllenDowney\/ThinkBayes2\/blob\/master\/notebooks\/chap17.ipynb\">click here to run the code in a Colab notebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>If you like this sort of thing, you will like my forthcoming book, called <em>Probably Overthinking It<\/em>, which is about using evidence and reason to answer questions and guide decision making. If you would like to get an occasional update about the book, please <a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/h0nfbX\">join my mailing list<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On September 25, 2022, Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon. In a previous article, I noted that the marathon record speed since 1970 has been progressing linearly over time, and I proposed a model that explains why we might expect it to continue.&nbsp; Based on a linear extrapolation of the data so far, I predicted that someone would break&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"><a class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\"> Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Read More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.allendowney.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/25\/on-pace-for-2-hour-marathon-in-2035\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035 - Probably Overthinking It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On September 25, 2022, Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:09, breaking his own world record by 30 seconds and taking another step in the progression toward a two-hour marathon. 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